Førte nedstenging av samfunnet ("lockdown") til færre dødsfall under pandemien? Nei, viser ny metastudie.

[nebbete fugl]

https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdf

Quote

The most recent research has shown that lockdowns have had, at best, a marginal effect on the number of Covid19 deaths. Overall, our meta-analysis fails to confirm that lockdowns have had a large, significant effect on mortality rates. Studies examining the relationship between lockdown strictness find that the average lockdown in Europe and the United States only reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% compared to a COVID-19 policy based solely on recommendations. The effect of border closures, school closures and limiting gatherings on COVID-19 mortality yields precision-weighted estimates of -0.1%, -4.4%, and 1.6%, respectively.  However, closing non-essential businesses seems to have had some effect (reducing COVID-19 mortality by 10.6%), which is likely to be related to the closure of bars. Also, masks may reduce COVID-19 mortality, but there is only one study that examines universal mask mandates.

Lockdowns during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic have had devastating effects. They have contributed to reducing economic activity, raising unemployment, reducing schooling, causing political unrest, contributing to domestic violence, and undermining liberal democracy. These costs to society must be compared to the benefits of lockdowns, which our meta-analysis has shown are marginal at best.

Such a standard benefit-cost calculation leads to a strong conclusion: lockdowns should be rejected out of hand as a pandemic policy instrument.

 

 

 

[stan]

Dr. John Campbell i videoen du refererer til er kritisk til rapporten. Et poeng er at den bare ser på sent iverksette lock-down. Effekten av lock-down er nødvendigvis mindre hvis den iverksettes for seint. 

I tillegg ser rapporten kun på dødsfall, korona har også andre konsekvenser. 

Å bruke denne rapporten slik TS gjør her er useriøst. Skal man kritisere myndighetenes håndtering av pandemien må det gjøres grundig og etterrettelig, ellers er det myndighetene som vinner. 

[Anonymus1986]

Ikke overraskende at tiltakene hadde enorme konsekvenser, og at de har vært i strid med grunnlovsfestete rettigheter og har undergravd det liberale demokratiet er det ingen tvil om.

[J.E]

https://videnskab.dk/krop-sundhed/britisk-professor-absurd-at-paastaa-at-nedlukninger-ikke-virker?fbclid=IwAR3hdSrKHEgUdRatqdGRiauq9csKMUZOKOTVS4ZrPwltNTC233A0AWxoy6I
 

Forskere er ikke  enig det. Analysen er ikke fagfellevurdert.

[matsats]

Om man ser på delstatene i USA så virker det som at smitteverntiltak har generelt svært liten effekt. Der stiger og synker smitten, og dødsfall, tilsynelatende helt uavhengig hvor strenge tiltak delstatene har implementert.